I would approach the stability problem from an electronics/signal processing/control theory background.
I have no signal processing background whatsoever; to my eyes, signal processing is a fairly advanced for of magic. (My background is in logic and programming languages.)
Frankly I haven't yet been able to reverse-engineer the weird exponential smoothing filter behaviour enough to build a model, perhaps you (or someone) could expand on the rationale for the smoothing filter construction and the addition of hysteresis?
To be honest, we hacked things until we had acceptable worst-case behaviour. We had two networks to experiment with: Nexedi's production network (hundreds of tunnels over the public IPv6 Internet) and a simulated network we built ourselves which we believed represented the worst case (a bufferbloated diamond network). We built a first prototype, which we instrumented to log RTT samples and route flaps, and noticed three things: 1. in the production network, the RTT signal is noisy (see figures 4 and 6 of [1]); 2. in the bufferbloated diamond network, when we switch away from a congested route, we switch back too early, before the buffers have had time to drain; 3. in the diamond network, we tend to switch routes as we oscillate around a common value. Hence, the three mechanisms: 1. smoothing of the RTT, to makes the signal less noisy; the smoothing is exponential just because it's easy to implement; 2. saturating map from RTT to metric, so that congested routes all appear equally bad, and we don't switch back before the buffers drain; this was stolen from [2]; 3. hysteresis, in order to avoid switching with too high a frequency. Daniel, if you feel you're competent to work on that, I'd be interested in collaborating. I don't currently have funding for Babel, but it should be easy enough to find some. References: [1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1403.3488.pdf [2] Atul Khanna and John Zinky. The Revised ARPANET Routing Metric. SIGCOMM ’89 Symposium proceedings on Communications architectures and protocols, pp. 45-56. ACM New York, NY, USA, 1989.